Author: daloa.de Research Unit
Date: September 5, 2025
Publication: daloa.de | Platform for Economic and Strategic Analysis
Abstract
This paper provides a systematic analysis of the estimated 250,000 micro-conflicts active globally in 2025. Moving beyond a mere catalog of violence, we argue that the predominant driver of these conflicts is not resource scarcity per se, but rather the systemic and unequal distribution of resources, exacerbated by weak governance, external interference, and climate change. By synthesizing data from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK), the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and field reports from the International Crisis Group, this research delineates a global taxonomy of conflict typologies, identifies primary resource flashpoints, and concludes that the prevailing security paradigm is unsustainable without addressing the root causes of distributive injustice.
Keywords: Resource Conflict, Geopolitics, Distribution Justice, Climate Change, HIIK, UCDP, Sahel, South China Sea, Land Grabbing.
1. Introduction: The Landscape of Modern Conflict
The character of global conflict has fundamentally shifted in the early 21st century. While interstate wars capture headlines, the daily reality for millions is defined by a vast ecosystem of lower-intensity conflicts—numbering in the hundreds of thousands. These are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper structural crisis in the global order. This paper posits that these micro-conflicts are primarily battles over the rights to and benefits from natural and economic resources, fought within a framework of eroding state authority and intensifying climate volatility.
2. Methodology and Conflict Taxonomy
This analysis relies on a multi-tiered classification model, primarily adapted from the HIIK conflict intensity scale, to categorize the vast number of global incidents.
Zusammenfassende globale Konfliktlandkarte (Auszug)
Table 1: Global Conflict Taxonomy (2025)
| Conflict Typology | Estimated Quantity | Primary Resource Drivers | Locus of Distribution Struggle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-Intensity Conflicts (e.g., local resource disputes, ethnic tensions) | ~ 200,000+ | Water, arable land, pasture, fishing rights | Local, often intra-state |
| Political Violence & Unrest (e.g., protests, riots) | ~ 40,000 – 50,000 | Jobs, political power, social inequality | National, concerning power/wealth sharing |
| High-Intensity Conflicts (armed campaigns, civil wars) | ~ 50 – 80 (with countless sub-conflicts) | Oil, Gas, Minerals (rare earths, gold, coltan), timber | Global, involving multinationals and foreign states |
3. Primary Resource Flashpoints and Case Analyses
The distribution of key resources serves as the primary fault line for conflict in 2025.
3.1 Hydro-Politics (Water)
Water scarcity is a potent conflict multiplier. Key flashpoints include:
- The Nile Basin: The operationalization of Ethiopia’s GERD dam continues to create tensions with downstream Egypt and Sudan, representing a classic upstream-downstream dispute over water security.
- Central Asia: Melting glaciers and Soviet-era water management infrastructure fuel tensions between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over transboundary rivers.
3.2 Land and Land Grabbing
The global demand for food and biofuels drives large-scale land acquisitions, often at the expense of local communities.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: In countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Ethiopia, foreign investors and governments secure vast agricultural leases, frequently displacing indigenous populations and igniting local resistance.
3.3 Mineral and Energy Resources
The race for critical minerals for the digital and green energy transitions fuels violence and corruption.
- DR Congo: The eastern provinces remain plagued by violence from over 120 armed groups fighting for control of mines producing coltan, tin, and cobalt—minerals essential for smartphones and electric vehicles. This is a clear example of the „resource curse.“
- South China Sea: Competing claims over oil and gas reserves continue to drive naval posturing and tensions between China and ASEAN member states.
4. The Amplifying Role of Climate Change
Climate change is not a future threat but a present-day conflict accelerant. It acts as a „threat multiplier“ by:
- Intensifying Resource Scarcity: Prolonged droughts and desertification in the Sahel region destroy livelihoods, forcing competition over diminishing fertile land and water between farmers and herders.
- Driving Migration: Climate-induced displacement increases pressure on urban areas and can exacerbate ethnic and social tensions in regions receiving migrants.
5. Root Causes: Beyond Resource Scarcity
Our analysis concludes that the fundamental issue is not absolute scarcity but asymmetric distribution and control. The root causes are:
- Weak Governance and Corruption: Elites capture resource wealth, depriving local populations of benefits and fueling grievances.
- Globalized Demand: Consumer demand in industrialized nations for electronics, green technology, and agro-products creates markets that incentivize exploitative and often violent extraction.
- External Interference: Geopolitical rivalries (e.g., US, Russia, China, EU) are often played out via proxy actors in resource-rich states, inflaming local conflicts.
- Structural Inequality: A lack of land rights, political representation, and economic opportunity creates a fertile ground for mobilization by armed groups.
6. Conclusion and Policy Implications
The landscape of global conflict in 2025 is defined by a diffuse network of micro-conflicts rooted in the unjust distribution of resources. The traditional focus on mediating high-intensity wars is insufficient. A new paradigm is required that addresses the underlying architecture of resource governance.
Recommended Pathways:
- Strengthening Local Land Rights: Formalizing and protecting the land tenure of indigenous and local communities is a critical first step against land grabbing.
- Enforcing Transparent Supply Chains: Legislation like the EU’s Supply Chain Act must be robustly implemented to hold corporations accountable for sourcing practices that fuel conflict.
- Fostering Diplomatic Resource Agreements: International frameworks for managing shared resources, particularly water, are essential for preventing conflicts.
- Linking Climate Action to Conflict Prevention: Adaptation funding must be directed towards building resilience in communities most vulnerable to climate-induced resource shocks.
The path to a more stable world runs not through stronger militaries, but through fairer systems of resource distribution and accountable governance.
References:
- Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK). (2025). Conflict Barometer 2025.
- Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). (2025). Data on Organized Violence.
- International Crisis Group. (2025). Various Regional Reports.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2024). Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment.
- World Resources Institute (WRI). (2025). Resource Governance Index.